Oil & Gas Intelligence

Chokepoint disruption probability, price-impact modelling, and facility exposure analysis — updated daily.

Key Metrics

What You Get

Daily Chokepoint Go/No-Go

Real-time assessment of whether each critical chokepoint is passable or blocked, with immediate action recommendations.

Strait Disruption Probability

Confidence intervals and probabilistic forecasts for disruption at Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Suez, updated daily.

Price Impact Estimates

Quantified $/bbl price premium calculations for each disruption scenario and geopolitical risk event.

Facility Strike-Range Analysis

Geospatial analysis of drone, missile, and weapon system range to critical oil and gas infrastructure.

Route Recommendation Matrix

Optimized shipping routes with risk-weighted costs, transit times, and contingency alternatives for each market.

LNG Flow Disruption Alerts

Early warning signals for LNG facility shutdowns, sanctions impacts, and weather-related disruptions.

Live Country Risk Assessment

Country Industry-Weighted Risk Score Risk Level Details

Chokepoint & Risk Monitor

Strait of Hormuz

Daily Volume 21 mbpd
Controlling Authority Iran & Oman
Global Impact Critical

The world's most critical chokepoint. Separation of Iran and Oman at 33 miles. Home to constant military presence and historical incidents.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Daily Volume 6.2 mbpd
Controlling Authority Yemen & Djibouti
Global Impact High

Narrow passage between Yemen and Djibouti. Recent Houthi attacks have disrupted shipping. Controls access to Red Sea and Suez.

Suez Canal

Daily Volume 5.5 mbpd
Controlling Authority Egypt
Global Impact Critical

Critical link between Europe and Asia. Single-lane passage 300 meters wide. Susceptible to accidents, blockages, and political tensions.

Sample Daily Deliverable

Daily Report — 29 March 2026 OPEN

HORMUZ STATUS: OPEN

Disruption Probability: 23%
Confidence Level: High (92%)
Recommended Action: CONTINUE standard routing
Price Premium if Disrupted: +$4.20/bbl

Key Risk Factors

  • IRGC naval exercises scheduled for 35 nautical miles east of chokepoint (low-medium conflict risk)
  • No reported incidents in past 72 hours; standard military patrols continue
  • Weather conditions: favorable for transit (2-3 foot seas)
  • International shipping traffic: normal volumes, no reported delays

Route Recommendations

Route Option Transit Time Risk Level Cost Premium
Standard (Hormuz) 4.5 days Moderate Baseline
Cape of Good Hope (bypass) 18 days Low +12-15%
Proposed Alternative (RTM) 6.2 days Low-Medium +4-6%

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